NEWS

Preparing for when 'The Big One' hits

Gordon Friedman
Statesman Journal

When the big quake hits, it will hit hard.

If it's as bad as scientists are predicting, life for Oregonians will change instantly.

Phone calls will be impossible to make because cell towers will be down and landlines cut. Ham radio will be the most reliable source of communication.

Many of Oregon's crumbling bridges are expected to fail. The best way to cross the Willamette, at least for some time, will be by canoe.

Drinking water will be unavailable and sewer systems will fail.

Power will be out and generators of little use without ample supplies of fuel.

Food will be in short supply as trucks won't make it down roads blocked with debris. Grocery store shelves will empty.

A tsunami 30 to 50 feet high will hit the coast.

Buildings will be leveled. Thousands of people could be killed.

It's not a matter of if, it's when.

But before a major Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake hits, Oregonians have a choice, according to Althea Rizzo, a geologic hazards coordinator at the Oregon Office of Emergency Management, or OEM.

She said the choice is between being a survivor or victim.

Until there's cultural shift allowing people to openly talk about the disastrous impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, Rizzo said, the state will never be prepared to deal with one.

Thursday offered an opportunity for Oregonians to pause momentarily and think about earthquake preparation. It was the Great ShakeOut, billed as the world's largest earthquake drill.

But what's the chance of the big one? According to Oregon State University geologist Chris Goldfinger, there's a 37 percent chance within the next 50 years. The big quake could register between 7.6 ad 8.4 on the Richter scale. The really big one could be well above 9.0.

The last time Oregon experienced a Cascadia quake was Jan. 26, 1700. It was more than a 9.0. We're overdue for another.

Rizzo's job is primarily making sure that when the quake comes, the people that need to respond will be able to make it to work. Many of Oregon's first responders, she said, may be casualties of the quake.

"Think about the World Trade Center as a microcosm of what it's going to look like. There’s going to be dust everywhere, there’s going to be people coming out of buildings," she said. "For the most part, those first few days, it’s going to be you and me digging each other out."

In OEM there's a command center with 18 stations monitoring Oregon weather patterns, roads, news and social media. There's workers from government and military divisions practicing and planning in case of a disaster. Should a major quake occur, that's where decisions will be made.

In case the command center collapses, there's a mobile communications trailer outfitted with ham radios ready to go. Just last week, the trailer was used in a disaster training field exercise with 80 state agencies, said Terry Pietras, OEM's communications officer.

The OEM doesn't store food or water at its Salem location, which is surrounded by high, barbed fences. But it organizes the resources that would be able to bring in essentials after a disaster.

Rizzo, who holds a PhD in design and the human environment, or as she puts it "How we relate to the things we build," also works to do public outreach.

She assistes with programs like the Great ShakeOut. In Oregon, there were more than 500,000 participants who dropped and covered Thursday during the 10:15 a.m. drill. More than 40 million participated world-wide.

"I’m happy that so many people are taking the threat seriously," Oregon Senate President Peter Courtney said in a statement. "There’s a new attitude in Oregon. People finally recognize that this is real."

At Marion County Public Works, where county officials also plan for disasters, the drill evacuated the building. Things went mostly according to plan.

Marion County safety specialist Jim Thompson said that in a real earthquake, they'd have to do better.

"This is the easy version," he said of Thursday's drill.

During a debriefing, Thompson and other county employees discussed their earthquake plan.

"In your home plan, you're supposed to shut off gas meters. What's our plan here?" said Mike Harmel, who works in road operations.

"We haven't addressed that," Thompson said.

"I don't even know where the gas shutoff is," another employee said.

Another asked how they're supposed to get in the public works building with their key cards, which open electronic doors, if the power is out.

Despite its hiccups, the fact that drills are being conducted at all is important, according to Rizzo. Oregon is starkly different from California or Japan or Chile where there are frequent earthquake drills.

Rizzo said Thursday's ShakeOut was "mind boggling" in a good way — participation in Oregon more than doubled since last year.

She said it's important that average Oregonians experience a cultural shift and realize preparedness may save their lives, or the life of a family member or pet. That preparedness may mean the difference between staying in your home or an evacuation shelter.

Recently Chile experienced an 8.3 earthquake — which is small compared to what will hit Oregon, according to Rizzo — and only 10 people died. She said we need to prepare to deal with quakes much worse.

Her specific recommendation is to start a conversation. If enough people become aware, prepare and make specific recommendations to their legislators, things can change and lives can be saved.

"We have a culture that works against everything that we need to be doing," she said.

Rizzo looked back on earlier in the week when she spoke in Portland about retrofitting old homes.

“There are all these beautiful 1910 homes. None of them would be here if they’re not retrofitted. And that culture, that aesthetic, is Portland,” she said. "Are we able to continue as Oregonians if we don’t do the hard work ahead of time?”

gfriedman2@statesmanjournal.com, (503) 399-6653, on Twitter @gordonrfriedman or Facebook.com/gordonrfriedman

Bridge report highlights Oregon's shaky infrastructure

What to have in your earthquake preparedness kit

  • Water: One gallon per person, per day. Save extra if you have pets.
  • Food: Enough food to last two weeks.
  • Medical information: Copies of your prescriptions and extra medications