As forecasters get it wrong, Oregon lucky with snowpack

If there were ever a year to remind Oregonians that weather forecasters don’t know quite everything, this winter brought proof.

The rainy season began with a serious amount of pessimism, as forecasters and climatologists fretted about a strong El Nino fueling a third straight winter of thin snowpack.

Oregon was already mired in a historic drought — following one of the hottest and driest years on record in 2015 — and the consensus was more bad news was headed our way.

“I remember being really worried in October,” said Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University. “All the signs were pointing to another bad year.”

Yet the nightmare scenario never happened.

Now, the Beaver State has a robust snowpack and healthy reservoir storage. Even with summertime temperatures gracing the Willamette Valley this week, the Northwest should have a fairly normal summer in terms of water.

“The take home is that we’re in excellent condition at this point,” said Scott Oviatt, snow survey supervisor for the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Oregon. “It remains to be seen how quick the snowmelt occurs. If it happens too quickly, we could still have issues.”

So what happened to all those predictions of doom and gloom?

Well, in a word, Oregon got lucky.

The power of El Nino tilted more northward than expected during December, sending a deluge of precipitation that happened to coincide with a system of cool air.

The result was massive snow in Oregon’s mountains during late December and early January — a whopping 200 percent of normal in some parts of the state.

UPDATE: Winter storm to slam Cascade Range, bring 20 to 40 inches of snow

Eventually El Nino’s wrath moved south and Oregon did experience a warmer than normal winter, particularly in February. Snowpack dropped all the way down to 70 percent of normal in the Willamette Basin during February, and a large-scale melt-off seemed possible.

Yet another lucky break — March storms combined with a system of cool air — bolstered the snowpack back to 105 percent of normal statewide as of April 1.

Crater Lake National Park sets new December snowfall record

“We were lucky in that while we had a lot of warm weather, when the storms came in, it happened to be cold enough for us to get some snow,” Dello said.

Whether it’s good fortune or just part of nature’s cycle, the summer of 2016 is looking a lot healthier than 2015.

Zach Urness has been an outdoors writer, photographer and videographer in Oregon for eight years. He is the author of the book “Hiking Southern Oregon” and can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on Zach Urness or @ZachsORoutdoors on Twitter.