NOAA: Another hot summer coming to Oregon
Yet another hot summer is likely coming to Oregon.
The long-term forecast is calling for temperatures “well above average” from June to August in the Pacific Northwest, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
“We can’t say exactly how hot it’s going to be, just that there’s a good chance we’ll be above average,” said Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University.
Last year was the warmest in Oregon since state record keeping began in 1895. June and July of 2015 were the hottest in Salem’s history, with 21 days above 90 degrees and four above 100.
This projection doesn’t mean temperatures will reach those boiling levels, but it increases the chances that Oregon will slip back into drought, perhaps as early as late June. The large snowpack that built up during winter has almost entirely melted in the lower elevations.
Drought looms as Oregon snowpack melts at record pace
“At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see drought expand into Western Oregon during the next month, unless we get some major precipitation,” National Weather Service hydrologist Matt Bryant said. “If we weren’t coming off the worst drought in recent history (last year), I think we’d probably be talking about this a lot more.”
This projection means that there’s a 60 to 70 percent chance of temperatures in the warmest third of all summers from 1981 to 2010.
"The good news is that reservoirs are in pretty good shape, at least compared to last year," Dello said.
Oregon's 2015 was hottest in history
The reason for the warm temperature projections isn't because of El Niño, which caused a fairly warm winter in Oregon, NOAA said.
"Although the tropical Pacific appears to be in the middle of a transition between El Niño and La Niña, neither phase has a significant influence on summer climate," NOAA said in a press release. "Instead, the summer outlook is more influenced by short- and long-term ocean and atmospheric trends as well as mid-latitude sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans."
Zach Urness has been an outdoors writer, photographer and videographer in Oregon for eight years. He is the author of the book “Hiking Southern Oregon” and can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on Zach Urness or @ZachsORoutdoors on Twitter.